social security cola 2027 forecast

As of September 2026, the forecast for the 2027 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) is generally projected to be between 3.5% and 3.6%.

Current Forecasts

• AARP: Projects a 3.6% increase.
• The Senior Citizens League (TSCL): Projects a 3.5% increase.

These estimates are based on inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July and August 2026. Because the COLA is calculated using the average inflation data from the third quarter (July, August, and September), the final figure remains subject to change based on the September 2026 data.

Key Information

• Official Announcement Date: The Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce the official 2027 COLA on October 14, 2026, the same day the September inflation report is released.
• How It Works: The COLA is calculated by comparing the CPI-W from the third quarter of the current year to the third quarter of the previous year.
• Implementation: Once announced, the official adjustment will take effect for Social Security benefits beginning in January 2027.

Note: While a 3.5% to 3.6% increase would result in higher monthly payments, beneficiaries should keep in mind that Medicare Part B premiums are also typically adjusted each year and are often automatically deducted from Social Security checks, which may offset some of the net increase.